A new report by The Future Governance Forum (FGF) calls on the next UK Prime Minister to expand the current ‘one-in, one-out’ migration deal with France into a bespoke ‘routes for returns’ deal with Europe, to significantly reduce irregular crossings, while expanding access to safe and legal inbound routes.
The report recommends:
-
A six month circuit-breaker in which 80% of small boat and lorry arrivals from Europe would be returned, offering a serious, visible deterrent.
-
Alongside this, dropping the ‘one-for-one’ requirement from the current deal and prioritising a wider ‘routes for returns’ pact with France and other European nations to boost access to safe inbound routes. The report recommends the new administration prioritises this agreement within wider EU reset negotiations.
-
Accommodating 50% of new arrivals via community sponsorship and lifting the ban on asylum seekers’ right to work in the UK who come legally through the scheme, thereby boosting local integration and reducing the costly use of hotels and military sites.
New polling released alongside the report shows broad public support for such an approach. Nearly two thirds (62%) of Labour 2024 voters support a ‘routes for returns’ style deal with Europe, as well as 67% of ‘Labour Right-leaning Gettables’ – those voters lost to Labour’s right, but who remain open to returning. On top of this, 58% of Green voters support this approach, and 65% of ‘Labour Progressive Gettables’ – voters that Labour lost to other progressive parties but remain open to returning – also support the policy.
‘Rethinking Migration: The case for a new progressive deal with Europe’ is the first report in FGF’s ‘Re-thinking Migration’ project, which looks at how to deliver an effective asylum system, rooted in progressive values, that sustains greater public confidence.
Beth Gardiner-Smith, FGF Senior Policy Associate, said: “The new Labour leader will only have three years left to get a grip on Channel crossings if they want to win back public trust and deliver on one of voters’ top priorities. Unlike proposed ‘Denmark-style’ reforms, routes for returns deals are based on good evidence of what works to reduce irregular journeys – if operated at scale. Expanding the current migration deal with France into an agreement with other European countries would be a game-changer for Channel crossings but it requires the new Prime Minister to prioritise a deal from the outset as they build relationships with EU leaders, and take forward the wider EU-reset agenda. Our polling shows there is a public mandate for an asylum system that is fair and controlled and continues to see Britain playing its part to provide asylum safely to those in need.”
FGF’s ‘Rethinking Migration’ project looks at how to deliver an effective asylum system, rooted in progressive values, that sustains greater public confidence. Polling was conducted online between the 11th and 12th of May 2026 by Convergent Opinion. Convergent interviewed 2,369 adults and weighted the sample to be both demographically and politically representative of all Britons. Convergent Opinion is a member of the British Polling Council and can be contacted at: [email protected]
