As MPs debate the Government’s flagship Borders Bill this week, some of the most consequential decisions for the future of asylum are at this moment being taken over in Washington.
In the last three weeks, Trump’s administration has pursued a scorched earth approach: blocking virtually all routes to asylum in the US; suspending the US resettlement programme; freezing government spending on foreign aid; and attempting to demolish USAID. While some of these decisions will be kicked to the courts to adjudicate, Trump’s intent is crystal clear – unilateralism is back, with dramatic consequences for global cooperation and norms.
Here in the UK, the US withdrawal from the international system poses real risks for our own Government’s ability to deliver on its asylum agenda. It also forces the question: what is the role of progressive governments in this era-defining context? For a UK Government committed to good governance, rooted in effective institutions and the rule of law, this question poses particular challenges, but as we will explore at FGF, it could also give rise to opportunities for bold reform.
Trump’s decision to end US asylum and resettlement and leverage the deepest cuts to foreign aid spending since WWII spells disaster for the world’s refugees. And with most refugees currently assisted to remain in their region or wait for resettlement, it also raises big questions for the UK and European nations under pressure to deliver a reduction in irregular arrivals.
By the end of the Biden term, the US resettlement programme was the largest globally by some margin, taking nearly half of the refugees resettled via UNHCR. Around two thirds of refugees resettled to the US in 2024 were from the Near East, South Asia and Africa – 88% of those arriving by small boat in the UK in 2023 also came from these regions. With international agencies such as the UN’s refugee agency (UNHCR) now braced for significant budget cuts, many more refugees who can no longer find opportunities or assistance close to home or through resettlement, may travel onwards to Europe via people smugglers instead.
On Europe’s borders, Trump’s promise to push for a deal on Ukraine could mean either many Ukrainians returning home (250,000 have been granted temporary leave in the UK), or a new influx of refugees to Europe.
The UK Government hopes new counter-terror style powers to pursue criminal gangs, introduced in their Borders Bill this week, will start to have some impact on the number of people arriving by small boat, which remains stubbornly high. However, they won’t have factored in a major surge in arrivals to Europe that could be caused by destabilising moves from the US.
But it’s not only risks to delivery the UK Government should be concerned about. Trump 2.0 threatens the very norms and frameworks that underpin the rules-based international order and defend human rights – including the Refugee Convention, which has protected millions of refugees since WWII.
For a UK Prime Minister who used his first speech to the European community to speak of the very personal inspiration he drew from the promise and commitment of international law, this represents a challenge of a different nature. The UK may be able to fly under the radar of retaliatory tariffs for now, or even flirt with Trump-style ‘show don’t tell’ tactics to demonstrate their own tough border approach, but Trump is on a collision course with the international rights-based system. Whispered talk of US withdrawal from the Refugee Convention if their asylum ban is overturned, and authoritarian governments in Europe pushing for a Convention-defying approach from the EU mean the UK will may soon be faced with a choice: speak up or stand by while the global protection system that so inspired the young Prime Minister rapidly collapses. This choice might come sooner than we think, considering Labour’s likely Convention-defying decision to refuse citizenship to refugees who have made a dangerous journey.
So how should this Government, committed to rules-based order but facing its own domestic pressure on asylum, respond? Is it possible to deliver greater control at the border and a more orderly and humane asylum system in an increasingly disordered and uncertain global context? And is there a progressive case for taking on reform of the international system to preserve fundamental rights and deliver a system fit for today’s world?
These are some of the questions we will be seeking answers to in the coming months as part of Future Governance Forum’s focus on Institutional Renewal.
One answer may, in fact, lie back across the Atlantic with the Biden administration. While the Democrats may not be the first port of call for a Labour government in search of winning ideas, particularly on migration, Biden’s final year in office saw the Democrats pull off the seemingly impossible at the border. They reduced irregular border crossings by some 80% through a combination of enforcement against smugglers, smart diplomacy, and a massive expansion in safe routes. Demand for services of criminal smuggling gangs all but dried up for some nationalities.At FGF, we will be looking to surface and test ideas such as these over the coming months in our ‘Future of Asylum’ project. With the resurgence of Populist anti-migration politics, and a Trump Presidency reshaping global politics at the stroke of a pen, bold thinking and strong leadership will be needed to preserve the global protection system. The big question is what role a progressive UK government will play in shaping this realignment.
